The liquidity in the banking system could ease in the coming week due to an increase in government spending - a development that would be the key for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to decide whether to extend the incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) mandate for banks. There are signs of improvement in the liquidity scenario as banks parked Rs 25, 833 crore with the RBI on Thursday. Market participants expect liquidity to gradually improve by the end of the month or during the first week of September, aided by government spending.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and HDFC Bank were the major laggards.
Mukherjee said uncertainty was still there on oil prices front due to unrest in West Asia and North Africa.
Longer-tenure FDs generally give higher returns. Nonetheless, going for a tenure higher than two to three years is not advisable.
Majority of the experts expect a 25 basis point reduction.
British banking major RBS on Thursday said it expects the Reserve Bank to cut key rate by 25 basis points or 0.25 per cent in its monetary policy review next week, leaving the cash reserve ratio (CRR) unchanged.
The main reason was that CPI inflation would likely remain below 4 per cent till July.
The year 2022 saw the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) start acting on the policy repo rate after a gap of two years. The six-member monetary policy committee of the RBI reduced interest rate sharply - by 115 bps - when Covid-19 struck in 2020. In March 2020, days after the nationwide lockdown was announced, MPC in an unscheduled meeting reduced the repo rate by 75 bps, followed by another 40 bps in May. Status quo was maintained for the next two years since the May repo rate hike.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has given HDFC Bank six months to migrate HDFC's home loan customers to external benchmark linked lending rate (EBLR), top sources in the bank told Business Standard. Almost half of HDFC's 5.4 million customers are home loan customers. It is mandatory for banks to link retail loans and loans to micro, medium and small enterprises to an external benchmark. Non-banking financial companies do not have such a mandate.
Tactical investors should have an investment horizon of around six months to one year, long-term investors should stick around for 10 years or more.
Equity benchmark Nifty scaled the psychological milestone of 21,000 in afternoon trade on Friday, and the Sensex touched its all-time intraday high of 69,888.33 after the central bank's decision to keep policy rates unchanged in line with market expectations. The 50-share benchmark index opened on a bullish note, after taking a breather on Thursday, and rose to 21,006.10. As many as 25 stocks were trading in the green, and 24 stocks defied the broader market and were trading in the negative territory.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank is likely to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) after the Budget.
Reserve Bank of India governor, Bimal Jalan, said on Monday there was no proposal to cut the repo rate as of now and added the bank's bias towards soft rates would continue.
The monetary authority said it was worried on three fronts with regard to inflation as well as the economy.
'The rate cut could have been higher in the current economic conditions which would have had a stronger impact on business sentiment and spurred investment in a big way.'
Reserve Bank of India has kept options open for a possible repo rate cut but said there was no "great urgency" for slashing it from the present level of 5.0 per cent.
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
Host of lenders led by State Bank of India (SBI) and Bank of India hiked lending rates after the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate to tame inflation. The hike has been effected in their benchmark rate linked to the repo rate, which increased by half a percentage point to 5.9 per cent. Even financial institutions like mortgage lender HDFC Ltd hiked the lending rate by 50 basis points effective Saturday.
Banks and bond dealers expect RBI to slash its bank rate by 0.50 per cent and reduce repo rate by 0.25-0.50 per cent in the forthcoming busy season credit policy, going by the excess liquidity and lower yield on government papers.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
Banks submitted bids amounting to Rs 4.75 trillion, around 2.5 times of the notified amount of Rs 1.75 trillion, at the Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRR) auction conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on December 22, a day after the liquidity deficit in the banking system widened to Rs 2.5 trillion. In the most recent VRR auction held by the RBI on December 15, bids totaling 2.7 times the notified amount were received. Banks secured Rs 1 trillion at a weighted average rate of 6.63 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India has no plans to cut the short-term repo rate for some time, a senior central bank official said on Thursday.
The apex bank in its monetary policy for 2010-11 hiked the repo and the reverse repo to 5.25 per cent and 3.75 per cent, respectively, and the CRR to 6 per cent.
'Your decisions should not be driven by your view on the market, but by your objectives, risk appetite, and time horizon.'
Private sector lender ICICI Bank has revised its external benchmark lending rate (EBLR) to 8.10 per cent, and state-owned Bank of Baroda has raised the rate to 6.90 per cent with immediate effect after the RBI hiked the key repo rate. Likewise, two other public sector banks -- Bank of India and Central Bank of India -- have also raised the repo linked lending rate. In an out of turn Monetary Committee Meeting (MPC), the Reserve Bank on Wednesday announced to hike the benchmark repo rate -- the short term lending rate it charges to banks -- by 0.40 per cent to 4.40 per cent with immediate effect, aimed at taming the rising inflation caused by the global geopolitical situation.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Banks are likely to see their net interest margins (NIM) - broadly the difference between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits - shrink by another 30 basis points (bps) over the next few quarters. After hitting a peak of 3.3 per cent in the third quarter (Q3) of the financial year ended March 31, 2023 (FY23), NIMs have been on a downward trajectory, touching 3.13 per cent in Q2FY24 on higher cost of funds, according to capital markets firm CARE Ratings. Banks are still grappling with the Reserve Bank of India's policy rate increases - that have made deposits costlier as the interest payable to customers has increased - and the regulatory actions on unsecured lending.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday stressed that the monetary policy must remain actively disinflationary to ensure that the decline in inflation from its peak of 7.44 per cent in July continues smoothly. Addressing the Kautilya Economic Conclave 2023, he also said price stability and financial stability complement each other and it has been an endeavour at RBI to manage both efficiently. Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent annually in September on account of moderation in vegetables and fuel prices, and was back within the Reserve Bank's comfort level.
CLSA says government actions to facilitate investment more important for revival than a token monetary easing.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investments in the domestic debt market surged in December, marking a 77-month high, that is, since July 2017. According to market participants, this significant uptick in FPI inflows can be attributed to the post-domestic policy outcome and the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the December policy. FPI inflows into debt stood at Rs 18,393 crore in December against Rs 14,106 crore in November, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday raised India's growth projection for 2023 calendar year to 6.7 per cent on account of robust economic momentum. "Strong services expansion and capital expenditures propelled India's 7.8 per cent real GDP growth in the second (April-June) quarter from a year ago. "We have accordingly raised our 2023 calendar year growth forecast for India from 5.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent," Moody's said in its Global Macro Outlook. - el nino
Interest rate sensitive stocks gain ground post decision
SBI Q3FY24 result review: A higher-than-factored weakness in the October-to-December quarter (Q3) results of State Bank of India (SBI), for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), has prompted brokerages to cut earnings estimates for the ongoing financial year. They, however, have maintained 'Buy' ratings on the stock, revising target price upwards in some cases, owing to the stock's recent underperformance relative to its peers.
The global brokerage firm believes that CRR cut is likely to help cut lending rates and revive growth sentiments.
A day after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee hiked the policy repo rate by 50 basis points (bps), several commercial banks, including ICICI Bank and Bank of Baroda, raised their external benchmark-linked loan rates by an equal amount on Thursday. HDFC, the country's largest mortgage lender, too, increased its interest rates on housing loans by another 50 bps. In total, it has raised rates by 85 bps since May 4, when the RBI had increased the repo rate by 40 bps in an off-cycle meeting.
The members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voiced different views on the interest rate and stance, with two of them indicating they may not vote for further rate increases even if Governor Shaktikanta Das and Deputy Governor Michael Patra maintain bringing down inflation as their primary objective, the minutes of the December review of the monetary policy showed. The other two members remained neutral. The MPC increased the policy repo rate by 35 basis points (bps) - which was lower than the previous three hikes of 50 bps. The repo rate has been hiked by 225 bps to 6.25 per cent since May this year.
'Banks will continue to increase FD rates to attract more deposits and meet the increasing demand for credit.'
Opinions vary, but fund managers remain bullish.
MCLR-linked loans are more responsive to RBI's rate movements, and rate cuts may be transmitted to borrowers in a manner useful to them.
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